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FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Bond Yields and Return Calculations

The one-year spot rate is 3.00% and the two-year spot rate is 4.00%, both annually compounded. What is the implied one-year forward rate starting one year from now, annually compounded?

The implied one-year forward rate one year ahead is about 5.01%. It equals the two-year compounded growth factor, 1.04 squared, divided by the one-year growth factor 1.03, minus one. Averaging the spot rates or using a linear shortcut gives wrong answers.

  1. A5.01%Correct
  2. B5.00%
  3. C4.00%
  4. D3.50%

Explanation

The forward rate satisfies (1.03)(1+f) = (1.04)^2. So 1+f = 1.0816/1.03 = 1.05010, giving f of about 5.01%. The 5.00% option comes from the linear shortcut 2×4% − 3%, which ignores compounding. 3.50% is the simple average of the two spots.

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