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CA Final · Advanced Financial Management · Security Analysis

A research analyst at a Mumbai brokerage studies whether past daily price movements of shares listed on the NSE can be used to predict future prices. She finds that price changes today have no correlation with price changes yesterday, and that technical chart patterns earn no abnormal returns. Which form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis is directly supported by this finding?

The finding supports weak form efficiency. Weak form says current prices already reflect all historical price and volume data, so past price movements and technical chart patterns cannot generate abnormal returns. The data tested only past prices, not public or insider information, so stronger forms are not established.

  1. AWeak form efficiencyCorrect
  2. BSemi-strong form efficiency
  3. CStrong form efficiency
  4. DInefficiency in the weak form

Explanation

Weak form efficiency states that current prices fully reflect all past price and volume information. If past prices cannot predict future prices and chart patterns give no abnormal returns, the weak form is supported. The finding says nothing about public or private information, so semi-strong or strong form is not tested.

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