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FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Interest Rates

Under the pure expectations theory of the term structure, the current one-year spot rate is 3.0% and the market expects the one-year rate one year from now to be 5.0%. Using annual compounding, what is the two-year spot rate (rounded to two decimals)?

The two-year spot rate is about 3.99%. Under pure expectations the two-year growth factor equals 1.03 times 1.05, which is 1.0815, and its square root minus one gives 3.99%. The simple average of 4.00% ignores compounding and is therefore slightly too high.

  1. A3.00%
  2. B3.99%Correct
  3. C4.00%
  4. D5.00%

Explanation

Under pure expectations, (1+s2)^2 = 1.03 x 1.05 = 1.0815. The square root is 1.03995, so s2 is about 3.99%. The 4.00% option is the arithmetic average, which ignores compounding. 3.00% and 5.00% are just the one-year rates.

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