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CFA Level I · CFA Level I Exam · Credit Analysis for Corporate Issuers

A bond has a probability of default of 4% and a loss given default of 55%. Exposure at default is 2,000,000. The expected loss is closest to:

Expected loss is about 44,000. Multiply the 4% default probability by the 55% loss given default and by the 2,000,000 exposure, giving 0.022 × 2,000,000 = 44,000.

  1. A44,000Correct
  2. B80,000
  3. C110,000

Explanation

Expected loss = probability of default × loss given default × exposure = 0.04 × 0.55 × 2,000,000 = 44,000. Using only PD × exposure gives 80,000, which ignores recovery. Using LGD × exposure gives 1,100,000, which ignores PD, and 110,000 results from using 5.5% rather than 2.2%.

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