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CFA Level I · CFA Level I Exam · Credit Risk

A bond has an exposure at default of $2,000,000, a probability of default of 3%, and a recovery rate of 40% of exposure. The expected loss is closest to:

Expected loss is about $36,000. Severity is 60% because recovery is 40%, so loss given default is $1,200,000. Multiplying by the 3% default probability gives $36,000. Using recovery as the loss gives $24,000, and ignoring recovery gives $60,000.

  1. A$24,000
  2. B$36,000Correct
  3. C$60,000

Explanation

Loss severity = 1 − 0.40 = 60%. Loss given default = 2,000,000 × 0.60 = 1,200,000. Expected loss = 0.03 × 1,200,000 = $36,000. Using the recovery rate instead of severity gives $24,000, while ignoring recovery gives $60,000.

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