CFA Level I · CFA Level I Exam · Pricing and Valuation of Futures Contracts
A commodity forward is priced with a spot price of 50, continuously compounded risk-free rate of 3%, and storage costs, with a convenience yield that exceeds storage costs. Relative to a forward priced with only the risk-free rate, the observed forward price is most likely:
The forward price is lower. The cost of carry equals the risk-free rate plus storage costs minus convenience yield. When convenience yield exceeds storage costs, the net carry falls below the risk-free rate, so the forward price is below the risk-free-only value.
- Alower, because net convenience yield reduces the cost of carryCorrect
- Bequal, because convenience yield is ignored in arbitrage pricing
- Chigher, because storage costs are added to the cost of carry
Explanation
Cost of carry includes the risk-free rate plus storage costs minus the convenience yield. When convenience yield exceeds storage costs, net carry is lower than the risk-free rate alone, so the forward is lower. The storage-cost-only argument ignores the larger convenience yield.
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