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FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Measuring Credit Risk

A loan of USD 10 million has a PD of 4% and a LGD of 50%, and the exposure is fixed with no uncertainty in LGD. Treating default as a Bernoulli event, what is the standard deviation of the credit loss (unexpected loss) on this loan?

With a fixed loss of USD 5 million if default occurs, the loss is a scaled Bernoulli variable. Its standard deviation is 5 million times the square root of 0.04 x 0.96, about USD 0.98 million.

  1. AUSD 0.98 million
  2. BUSD 1.96 millionCorrect
  3. CUSD 2.00 million
  4. DUSD 0.20 million

Explanation

Loss = EAD x LGD x default indicator. Exposure loss given default = 5 million. SD = 5 x sqrt(0.04 x 0.96) = 5 x 0.19596 = 0.9798 million... recheck: sqrt(0.0384)=0.19596, so 5 x 0.19596 = 0.98 million. Correct value is USD 0.98 million.

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