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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Arbitrage Pricing with Term Structure Models

A risk analyst compares two one-factor short-rate models calibrated to the same market data. Model A is the Ho-Lee model, dr = λ(t)dt + σ dw. Model B is the Vasicek model, dr = k(θ − r)dt + σ dw. Which statement about the drift of the two models is correct?

Ho-Lee uses a time-dependent drift λ(t) chosen to fit the initial term structure, with no mean reversion. Vasicek uses a drift k(θ − r) that pulls the short rate toward a constant long-run mean θ, so it reverts but does not fit the curve exactly.

  1. AHo-Lee has a time-dependent drift that lets it fit the initial term structure, while Vasicek has a mean-reverting drift toward a constant long-run levelCorrect
  2. BHo-Lee has a mean-reverting drift toward a constant level, while Vasicek has a time-dependent drift that fits the initial curve exactly
  3. CBoth models have drift that depends on the current short rate level
  4. DNeither model has a drift term because both assume a constant short rate

Explanation

In Ho-Lee the drift λ(t) is a function of time chosen to match the initial curve, with no dependence on r. In Vasicek the drift k(θ − r) pulls the rate toward constant θ. The other options reverse or misstate these features.

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