FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Stress Testing
A risk manager at a bank compares two approaches to stress testing. Approach X applies a hypothetical, severe but plausible macroeconomic scenario (for example, a deep recession combined with a sharp equity decline) to the whole portfolio. Approach Y shocks one risk factor at a time by a fixed amount (for example, a 200 basis point parallel rise in rates). Which description is correct?
Approach X is scenario analysis because it moves multiple risk factors together under a coherent narrative, while Approach Y is sensitivity analysis because it shocks a single factor in isolation. Backtesting is a different exercise that compares model forecasts with realized results.
- AX is a scenario analysis and Y is a sensitivity analysisCorrect
- BX is a sensitivity analysis and Y is a scenario analysis
- CBoth X and Y are scenario analyses because both use hypothetical shocks
- DBoth X and Y are backtests because both rely on stressed inputs
Explanation
Scenario analysis moves many risk factors together under a coherent narrative, as in X. Sensitivity analysis moves a single factor in isolation, as in Y. Option B reverses the definitions. Backtesting compares model forecasts with realized outcomes, which neither approach does.
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