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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Future Value and Exposure

A risk manager compares the exposure profiles of two uncollateralised trades with the same counterparty and same maturity: a 5-year interest rate swap and a 5-year cross-currency swap with a final notional exchange. Which profile pattern is most consistent with theory?

The interest rate swap typically has a hump-shaped exposure profile because uncertainty grows while remaining payments shrink. The cross-currency swap has exposure that keeps rising toward maturity because the final notional exchange leaves large FX-driven value uncertainty until the end.

  1. ABoth profiles peak at inception and decline linearly to zero
  2. BThe interest rate swap profile is hump-shaped, peaking before maturity, while the cross-currency swap exposure tends to rise toward maturity because of the final exchangeCorrect
  3. CThe interest rate swap exposure rises until maturity, while the cross-currency swap profile is hump-shaped
  4. DBoth profiles are flat because exposure depends only on notional

Explanation

A swap's exposure uncertainty grows with time while remaining cash flows shrink through amortising effect, so the interest rate swap shows a hump. In a cross-currency swap, the large final notional exchange keeps FX-driven uncertainty high until maturity, so exposure increases toward the end. Option 2 reverses these.

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