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FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Measuring and Monitoring Volatility

Across strike prices, options on an equity index show implied volatilities that are highest for low-strike out-of-the-money puts and decline as strike rises. A risk manager interprets this pattern relative to the Black-Scholes-Merton assumption of constant volatility. Which interpretation is most consistent with this volatility skew?

A skew with the highest implied volatility at low strikes indicates the market prices a fatter left tail than the lognormal distribution with constant volatility assumes. Investors pay more for downside protection, so large drops are assigned higher probability than Black-Scholes-Merton implies. It does not signal a breach of put-call parity.

  1. AThe market assigns a higher probability to large downward moves than a lognormal distribution with constant volatility impliesCorrect
  2. BThe market assigns a lower probability to large downward moves than a lognormal distribution implies
  3. CHistorical volatility must be higher for high-strike calls than for low-strike puts
  4. DThe skew shows that put-call parity has failed for European options on the index

Explanation

Higher implied volatility for low-strike puts means those options are priced richer than constant-volatility BSM would imply, signaling a fatter left tail than lognormal returns. This is consistent with crash fears and leverage effects. Put-call parity is unaffected, since it holds for the same strike and expiry regardless of the skew.

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