FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Regression Diagnostics
An analyst fits a linear regression of monthly fund returns on a market factor and plots the residuals against the fitted values. The plot shows a clear funnel shape, with residuals becoming more widely dispersed as fitted values increase. Which conclusion is most appropriate?
A funnel-shaped residual plot signals heteroskedasticity, meaning residual variance changes with the fitted values. OLS coefficients stay unbiased, but conventional standard errors are wrong, making t-tests unreliable. Robust standard errors are the usual remedy. Multicollinearity and serial correlation are diagnosed differently.
- AThe residuals suggest heteroskedasticity, so the usual OLS standard errors are unreliableCorrect
- BThe residuals suggest multicollinearity, so the coefficient estimates are biased
- CThe residuals suggest serial correlation, so the R-squared is overstated
- DThe residuals suggest the model is well specified because the mean of the residuals is zero
Explanation
A funnel-shaped residual plot indicates that the residual variance changes with the fitted values, which is heteroskedasticity. OLS coefficients remain unbiased, but the conventional standard errors are incorrect, so t-tests are unreliable. Multicollinearity is detected from correlations among regressors, not from a funnel in residuals, and OLS residuals always average zero when an intercept is included.
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