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FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Linear Regression

An analyst regresses monthly fund excess returns (in %) on a dummy variable D that equals 1 in months when the market return was negative and 0 otherwise: R = 0.80 − 2.50·D + e. What is the estimated average monthly excess return in months when the market return was negative?

The average is −1.70% per month. The intercept of 0.80% is the mean for the base group (D = 0), and the dummy coefficient of −2.50 shifts the mean when D = 1, giving 0.80 − 2.50 = −1.70%.

  1. A0.80%
  2. B−1.70%Correct
  3. C−2.50%
  4. D3.30%

Explanation

With D = 1 the fitted value is the intercept plus the dummy coefficient: 0.80 − 2.50 = −1.70%. The intercept alone (0.80%) is the average for D = 0, the base group. The coefficient −2.50 is only the difference between groups.

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