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CFA Level I · CFA Level I Exam · Introduction to Financial Statement Modeling

An analyst's model forecasts sales of 2,000 million, a gross margin of 40%, operating expenses of 500 million and a tax rate of 25%. Interest expense is zero. The analyst then reviews a downside scenario in which sales are 10% lower, the gross margin is 38% and operating expenses are unchanged. Net income in the downside scenario is closest to:

Downside sales are 1,800 million; at a 38% margin gross profit is 684 million. After 500 million of operating expenses, operating income is 184 million, and after 25% tax net income is 138 million.

  1. A166 millionCorrect
  2. B190 million
  3. C300 million

Explanation

Downside sales = 2,000 × 0.90 = 1,800. Gross profit = 1,800 × 0.38 = 684. Operating income = 684 − 500 = 184. Net income = 184 × 0.75 = 138. Recheck: 138 is not offered, so the data are inconsistent with the options; the correct computed result is 138 million.

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