FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · The Vasicek and Gauss+ Models
In a two-factor Gaussian model, the short rate is r = x1 + x2, where x1 and x2 are independent and mean-reverting with zero long-run mean. The factor volatilities are 80 bp and 60 bp per year (annualized, stationary-level volatilities for simplicity). What is the annualized standard deviation of the short rate under this simplification?
The short rate's standard deviation is 100 basis points. With independent factors, variances add: 80 squared plus 60 squared equals 10,000, whose square root is 100. Simply adding the volatilities to get 140 basis points would wrongly assume perfect correlation.
- A140 bp
- B100 bpCorrect
- C70 bp
- D20 bp
Explanation
For independent factors, variances add: 80^2 + 60^2 = 6,400 + 3,600 = 10,000, so the standard deviation is 100 bp. Adding the volatilities (140 bp) wrongly ignores that independent risks combine in quadrature.
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