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CFA Level I · CFA Level I Exam · Understanding Business Cycles

Late in an expansion, an economy is most likely to show:

Late in an expansion the labor market is tight, so wage growth accelerates and unemployment sits near its cycle low. Inflation pressure builds as resources are fully used. Rising unemployment with falling inflation fits a downturn, not the late expansion.

  1. Arising unemployment and falling inflation
  2. Baccelerating wage growth and a falling unemployment rate near its lowest levelCorrect
  3. Crising inventory-to-sales ratios because of weak demand and shrinking credit

Explanation

Late in an expansion, labor markets are tight, so unemployment is low and wage pressure and inflation rise. Rising unemployment with falling inflation fits a contraction or early recession.

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