IAI Actuarial Core Principles · Actuarial Statistics
Purpose and function of data analysis: formula sheet
Key formulas
- Classification by measurement
- Data → Categorical (nominal, ordinal) or Numerical (discrete, continuous)
- Ask: is arithmetic meaningful? If not, it is categorical. Ordered categories are ordinal.
- Classification by time structure
- Cross-sectional = many units, one time; Time series = one unit, many times; Longitudinal = many units, many times
- Say which dimension varies. Longitudinal is also called panel data.
- Classification by source
- Primary = collected for this purpose; Secondary = collected by others or for another purpose
- Internal company records reused for a new purpose are secondary in the sense of being collected for another purpose.
- Big data characteristics
- Volume, Velocity, Variety, Veracity
- Some texts add further Vs. Learn these four and be ready to explain each.
- Missing data: mean imputation
- x̂ᵢ = x̄ = (Σ xⱼ) ÷ n, summed over the n observed values
- Keeps the mean unchanged but understates variance. Use only with a few missing values.
- Outlier rule of thumb (IQR)
- Flag x if x < Q₁ − 1.5 × IQR or x > Q₃ + 1.5 × IQR, where IQR = Q₃ − Q₁
- This is a screening rule, not proof of an error. Investigate before removing.
- Outlier screen (standard deviations)
- z = (x − x̄) ÷ s; investigate if |z| is large, for example above 3
- The mean and s are themselves affected by the outlier. The cut-off 3 is a convention.
- Reconciliation check
- Difference = total from dataset − control total from accounts
- A non-zero difference signals missing, duplicated or wrong records.
Quick revision
- Data analysis turns raw data into information that supports a stated decision or question.
- Always state the aim first; the aim drives the data needed and the method used.
- The process runs from defining the objective through collecting, cleaning, analysing and interpreting to communicating results.
- Primary data is collected by you for this purpose; secondary data already exists and was collected for another purpose.
- Discrete data takes countable values; continuous data can take any value in a range.
- Cross-sectional data is taken at one point in time; longitudinal data follows the same units over time.
- Check data for missing values, duplicates, outliers, errors and inconsistent definitions before analysing.
- Cleaning choices must be recorded and justified, and their effect on results should be considered.
- Data protection, confidentiality and fair use matter, especially with personal health or financial data.
- Descriptive analysis summarises the data you have; inferential analysis draws conclusions about a wider population; predictive analysis forecasts new or future outcomes.
- Always state your assumptions and the limits of the data in your conclusion.
Common mistakes
- Treating description and inference as the same thing. Fix: Ask whether the statement is only about the data in hand (description) or about a wider population (inference).
- Giving generic answers with no insurance or finance context. Fix: Tie each aim to a concrete example, such as claim frequency, mortality or reserves.
- Jumping straight to modelling and skipping the objective. Fix: Always start your answer with the objective and the decision that depends on the analysis.
- Listing the stages with no link to the scenario. Fix: For every stage, add one specific action using the data and context in the question.
- Calling numeric codes numerical data Fix: Ask whether arithmetic means anything. If the average of the codes is meaningless, the data is categorical.
- Confusing time series with longitudinal data Fix: Time series tracks one quantity or unit. Longitudinal tracks many units over time. Check how many units there are.
- Deleting every outlier automatically. Fix: Investigate first. Genuine large claims are real risk and should be kept or modelled separately.
- Saying mean imputation is harmless. Fix: State that it understates variance and can distort relationships between variables.
- Calling any use of a sample inferential. Fix: Ask whether a conclusion is drawn about the wider population with uncertainty. If you only report the sample mean, it is descriptive.
- Treating prediction and inference as the same thing. Fix: Inference focuses on parameters and uncertainty about them. Prediction focuses on accuracy for new observations. The same model can serve either aim.
Exam tips
- Start answers with the aim in a single sentence, then give examples. This secures marks quickly.
- Always use the context in the question. Generic lists score less than applied points.
- For 'discuss' questions, mention data quality and uncertainty as limits of any analysis.
- In multiple-choice questions, check whether the scenario talks about the sample only or the wider population.
- Link analysis to a decision at the end, such as pricing, reserving or risk management.
- Tie each stage to the scenario. Generic lists score less than specific actions.
- Allocate words to the stage the question stresses, such as cleaning or communication.
- Mention the iterative loop in at least one sentence.