IAI Actuarial Core Principles · Economic Modelling
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): formula sheet
Key formulas
- Portfolio expected return
- E(Rp) = Σ wᵢ E(Rᵢ)
- Weights wᵢ sum to 1. Short sales give negative weights.
- Two-asset portfolio variance
- Var(Rp) = w₁²σ₁² + w₂²σ₂² + 2w₁w₂Cov(R₁,R₂)
- Cov(R₁,R₂) = ρ₁₂σ₁σ₂.
- General portfolio variance
- Var(Rp) = ΣᵢΣⱼ wᵢwⱼ Cov(Rᵢ,Rⱼ)
- The sum includes i = j terms, which are the variances.
- Correlation
- ρ₁₂ = Cov(R₁,R₂) ÷ (σ₁σ₂)
- Always between -1 and +1.
- Minimum variance weight (two assets)
- w₁ = (σ₂² − σ₁₂) ÷ (σ₁² + σ₂² − 2σ₁₂)
- σ₁₂ is the covariance. w₂ = 1 − w₁. Weight on asset 1 is found by setting d Var/d w₁ = 0.
- Quadratic utility approach (mean-variance utility)
- U = E(R) − (λ ÷ 2) Var(R)
- One common form. λ > 0 is the risk aversion coefficient. Larger λ means more risk averse.
- Equally weighted n-asset diversification
- Var(Rp) = σ̄²÷n + ((n−1)÷n) × average covariance
- As n grows, variance tends to the average covariance: the systematic part.
- Portfolio of risk-free asset and risky portfolio P
- E(R) = (1 − w) r_f + w E(R_P); σ = |w| σ_P
- w is the proportion in P. w > 1 means borrowing at r_f to invest more in P.
- Capital Market Line
- E(R_P) = r_f + [(E(R_M) − r_f) ÷ σ_M] × σ_P
- Applies to efficient portfolios only. Intercept is r_f; slope is the market price of risk.
- Slope of the CML (Sharpe ratio of the market)
- (E(R_M) − r_f) ÷ σ_M
- Extra expected return per unit of standard deviation.
- Market portfolio weights
- w_i = market value of asset i ÷ total market value of all risky assets
- All investors hold the risky assets in these proportions under CAPM.
- Standard deviation needed for a target return
- σ_P = [E(R_P) − r_f] ÷ slope
- Rearranged CML. Use it when the question gives a target return.
- CAPM equation
- E(Ri) = Rf + βi × (E(Rm) − Rf)
- Gives the required (equilibrium) expected return. E(Rm) − Rf is the market risk premium.
- Beta definition
- βi = Cov(Ri, Rm) ÷ Var(Rm) = ρim × σi ÷ σm
- ρim is the correlation between security i and the market. σ is standard deviation.
- Portfolio beta
- βp = Σ wi × βi
- Weights wi are proportions of portfolio value and sum to 1. Beta is a weighted average.
- Alpha
- αi = E(Ri) − [Rf + βi(E(Rm) − Rf)]
- Positive alpha: above the SML, underpriced. Negative alpha: below the SML, overpriced.
- Systematic and specific risk
- σi² = βi² × σm² + σ²(εi)
- Holds under the single-factor (market model) set-up. The first term is systematic, the second is specific risk.
- Price implied by required return
- Fair price today = E(expected end-of-period value) ÷ (1 + required return)
- Use for a single period. Compare with the market price to judge over- or underpricing.
- CAPM
- E(Ri) = Rf + βi [E(RM) − Rf]
- Beta is Cov(Ri, RM) ÷ Var(RM). Only systematic risk earns a premium.
- Single index model
- Ri = αi + βi RM + εi
- E(εi) = 0 and εi is uncorrelated with RM and with other εj. This is a return-generating model, not an equilibrium model.
- Variance under single index model
- Var(Ri) = βi² σM² + σεi²
- Systematic part plus specific part.
- Covariance under single index model
- Cov(Ri, Rj) = βi βj σM²
- Holds for i ≠ j. It cuts the number of inputs needed for a portfolio.
- Multi-factor model
- Ri = ai + bi1 F1 + bi2 F2 + … + bik Fk + εi
- The bij are factor sensitivities. Factors can be macroeconomic or based on firm characteristics.
- APT expected return
- E(Ri) = λ0 + bi1 λ1 + bi2 λ2 + … + bik λk
- λ0 is the return on a zero-sensitivity asset, often Rf. Each λj is the risk premium for factor j.
- Test regression (cross-section)
- R̄i = γ0 + γ1 β̂i + ηi
- CAPM predicts γ0 = Rf and γ1 = E(RM) − Rf. Extra variables should have zero coefficients.
Quick revision
- Portfolio expected return: E(Rₚ) = Σ wᵢE(Rᵢ), with weights summing to 1.
- Two-asset variance: σₚ² = w₁²σ₁² + w₂²σ₂² + 2w₁w₂Cov(R₁, R₂).
- Correlation: ρ = Cov(R₁, R₂) ÷ (σ₁σ₂), and it lies between −1 and +1.
- The efficient frontier holds portfolios with the highest return for a given risk.
- The CML: E(Rₚ) = r_f + [E(R_M) − r_f] ÷ σ_M × σₚ, for efficient portfolios.
- The SML: E(Rᵢ) = r_f + βᵢ[E(R_M) − r_f], for any asset or portfolio.
- Beta: βᵢ = Cov(Rᵢ, R_M) ÷ Var(R_M). The market has beta 1 and the risk-free asset has beta 0.
- Only systematic risk is priced. Specific risk is removed by diversification.
- An asset above the SML is underpriced (positive alpha). One below is overpriced.
- The market risk premium is E(R_M) − r_f.
- Key assumptions: mean-variance investors, common expectations, one period, borrowing and lending at r_f, no taxes or transaction costs.
- Main limits: unrealistic assumptions, unobservable market portfolio, and weak empirical support for beta alone.
Common mistakes
- Averaging standard deviations to get portfolio risk. Fix: Use the variance formula with the covariance term. The weighted average of standard deviations is correct only when ρ = +1.
- Leaving out the factor 2 on the covariance term. Fix: Always write 2w₁w₂Cov(R₁,R₂) in the two-asset formula.
- Applying the CML to individual securities or inefficient portfolios. Fix: Remember: the CML uses σ and holds for efficient portfolios only. Individual assets lie below it. Use the SML with beta for any asset.
- Using beta on the x-axis of the CML. Fix: CML axes are standard deviation (x) and expected return (y). SML axes are beta (x) and expected return (y).
- Using E(Rm) instead of the market risk premium E(Rm) − Rf when multiplying by beta. Fix: Always compute the premium on its own line first, then multiply by beta, then add Rf.
- Dividing Cov(Ri, Rm) by the security's variance or by σm instead of Var(Rm). Fix: Beta is the regression slope of Ri on Rm, so the denominator is the variance of the market. Check units: covariance ÷ variance gives a pure number.
- Saying Roll's critique proves CAPM is false. Fix: Say it shows CAPM cannot be tested conclusively, because the true market portfolio is unobservable and any test is a joint test with the proxy.
- Treating the single index model and CAPM as the same. Fix: CAPM is an equilibrium model for expected returns. The single index model describes how returns are generated and includes an alpha and a random specific term.
Exam tips
- Show the formula first, then substitute. Markers give method marks even if arithmetic slips.
- State assumptions explicitly when asked about the theory: single period, rational risk-averse investors, mean and variance only, no frictions, common beliefs.
- For descriptive parts, distinguish systematic from unsystematic risk and say which one diversification removes.
- Sketch the frontier with axes labelled: standard deviation on the horizontal, expected return on the vertical. Mark the minimum variance point.
- In Paper B or R questions, state the covariance matrix and weights vector clearly, and compute variance as wᵀΣw.
- For assumption questions, give 5 or 6 assumptions and say what each one delivers. Marks usually go for the link, not the list.
- In a CML sketch, label the axes (σ and expected return), the intercept r_f, the point M and the slope. Show that the line continues beyond M for borrowing.
- Compare CML and SML in one line each when asked: CML is for efficient portfolios and uses σ; SML is for all assets and uses beta.