IAI Actuarial Statistics (CS1) Paper Guide

How to prepare Actuarial Statistics

1. Map the syllabus to the five topic areas and their weights. Give regression (30%) and inference (25%) the largest share of your hours, and still cover every area.
2. Start with the foundations: data analysis, exploratory methods, univariate distributions, joint distributions, expectations and conditional expectations. Write each distribution's mean, variance and key properties on one revision sheet, and learn to derive them, not just recall them.
3. Learn generating functions and the central limit theorem as tools. Practise finding moments from a generating function and using the CLT approximation, and state its conditions each time.
4. Work through inference in sequence: sampling distributions, estimators and their properties, confidence and prediction intervals, then hypothesis testing and goodness of fit. For every method, write the assumptions, the test statistic, the distribution under the null and the conclusion in words.
5. Study linear regression and generalised linear models together. Be able to set up the model, estimate parameters, interpret coefficients, check residuals and explain why a GLM is chosen over a linear model.
6. Cover Bayesian inference and credibility theory. Practise finding posteriors, choosing a loss function, building credible intervals, and calculating Bayesian and empirical Bayes credibility premiums.
7. Learn R alongside the theory, not after it. For each chapter, run the matching analysis on a small data set, read the output and write one sentence of interpretation. Practise in a timed setting before Paper B.
8. In the last weeks, do full past papers under exam conditions. Mark yourself strictly on working and wording, list every lost mark by cause, and revise those causes first.

Time management in the exam

• →Spend the first few minutes reading the whole paper. Pick out the multiple-choice questions and the written questions you can start at once.
• →Answer multiple-choice questions quickly. Each is worth only 2 marks, so do not let one hold you up. Mark the hard ones and return if time remains.
• →Use the marks as a clock. A question worth about 10 marks should not take more than about a tenth of the writing time, plus a short margin for checking.
• →If you are stuck on a part, write down the formula and setup to pick up method marks, then move on. Later parts often accept your earlier answer.
• →In Paper B, check your data import and variable names early. Small errors in setup can cost many minutes later. Save and label your outputs as you go.
• →Keep the last few minutes for checking units, signs, degrees of freedom and whether each conclusion answers the question asked.