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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Credit Risk

A bank holds a term loan with an exposure at default of USD 8,000,000, a one-year probability of default of 2.5%, and a loss given default of 40%. What is the one-year expected loss?

Expected loss is PD times LGD times EAD, which is 2.5% x 40% x USD 8,000,000 = USD 80,000. Omitting the loss given default gives USD 200,000, and omitting the default probability gives USD 320,000; both are incorrect.

  1. AUSD 80,000Correct
  2. BUSD 200,000
  3. CUSD 320,000
  4. DUSD 800,000

Explanation

Expected loss = PD x LGD x EAD = 0.025 x 0.40 x 8,000,000 = 80,000. USD 200,000 results from omitting LGD (0.025 x 8,000,000). USD 320,000 uses 1 - PD style confusion with LGD of 40% applied to EAD only (0.40 x 8,000,000), ignoring PD.

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