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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling and Assessment

A bank lends USD 2,000,000 to a corporate borrower. The one-year probability of default is 2%, the loss given default is 45%, and the exposure at default equals the full amount. What is the one-year expected loss?

The expected loss is USD 18,000, found by multiplying PD of 2%, LGD of 45% and EAD of USD 2,000,000. Omitting LGD would give USD 40,000, which overstates the loss because some value is recovered after default.

  1. AUSD 18,000Correct
  2. BUSD 40,000
  3. CUSD 900,000
  4. DUSD 1,100,000

Explanation

Expected loss = PD × LGD × EAD = 0.02 × 0.45 × 2,000,000 = 18,000. USD 40,000 ignores LGD and treats the whole exposure as lost on default. The other two figures are not products of the three components.

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