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FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Corporate Bonds

A bond investor estimates that a corporate bond has a one-year probability of default of 3% and a recovery rate of 40% of face value. Using the standard expected loss framework with exposure of USD 2,000,000, what is the expected loss over one year?

Expected loss is PD times LGD times exposure. With a 40% recovery rate, LGD is 60%, so the loss is 0.03 x 0.60 x 2,000,000 = USD 36,000. Using the recovery rate in place of LGD gives the wrong figure of USD 24,000.

  1. AUSD 36,000Correct
  2. BUSD 24,000
  3. CUSD 60,000
  4. DUSD 1,200,000

Explanation

Expected loss = PD x LGD x EAD. LGD = 1 - 40% = 60%. EL = 0.03 x 0.60 x 2,000,000 = 36,000. USD 24,000 wrongly uses the recovery rate (0.03 x 0.40 x 2,000,000) instead of the loss given default.

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