CMA Intermediate · Operations Management and Strategic Management · Simulation and Line Balancing
A hospital in Pune builds a computer model of its outpatient clinic and runs it repeatedly with randomly generated patient arrival times to study waiting times before changing staffing. Which feature of this approach marks it as Monte Carlo simulation?
Monte Carlo simulation is identified by its use of random numbers to sample uncertain variables from their probability distributions. Repeated trials then show the likely range of outcomes, such as patient waiting times, without disturbing the real clinic or guaranteeing a single optimal answer.
- AIt uses random numbers to sample values of uncertain variables from their probability distributionsCorrect
- BIt always produces one exact optimal staffing level
- CIt requires the real clinic to be shut down during testing
- DIt relies only on historical averages with no randomness
Explanation
Monte Carlo simulation draws random numbers and maps them to values of uncertain variables according to their probability distributions. Repeated runs give a range of outcomes. It does not guarantee a single optimal solution, and it does not disturb the real system.
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