FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Regression Hedging and Principal Component Analysis
A portfolio manager hedges a bond position using a regression of yield changes on a hedging instrument's yield changes. The regression has a high beta but a low R-squared of 0.15. Which conclusion is most appropriate?
The hedge leaves substantial residual or basis risk. An R-squared of 0.15 means the hedging instrument explains only 15% of the variation in the position's yield changes, so most variance remains unhedged even if beta is high.
- AThe hedge ratio is unbiased, so residual risk is negligible
- BThe hedge will remove most variance because beta is high
- CThe hedge is reliable because R-squared measures only the intercept
- DThe hedge leaves substantial residual (basis) risk because the instrument explains little of the yield variationCorrect
Explanation
R-squared of 0.15 means only 15% of variance is explained, so about 85% remains as unhedged residual risk regardless of beta size. Beta sets the hedge ratio, not its effectiveness.
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