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CMA Final · Strategic Financial Management · Evaluation of Risky Proposals for Investment Decisions

A project has three possible NPV outcomes (₹ lakh): −2 with probability 0.2, 4 with probability 0.5 and 10 with probability 0.3. The coefficient of variation of the project's NPV is closest to:

The coefficient of variation is about 0.91. Expected NPV is ₹4.6 lakh and the variance is 17.64, so the standard deviation is ₹4.2 lakh. Dividing the standard deviation by the expected NPV gives 4.2/4.6, which is roughly 0.91, the risk per unit of expected return.

  1. A1.10
  2. B3.83
  3. C0.42
  4. D0.91Correct

Explanation

Expected NPV = 0.2(−2) + 0.5(4) + 0.3(10) = 4.6. Variance = 0.2(6.6)² + 0.5(0.6)² + 0.3(5.4)² = 8.712 + 0.18 + 8.748 = 17.64, so SD = 4.2. CV = 4.2/4.6 = 0.91. The 1.10 option inverts the ratio (mean/SD), and 3.83 divides the variance rather than the SD by the mean.

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