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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Factors

A quantitative fund builds a momentum strategy that is long the top decile and short the bottom decile of stocks based on prior 12-month returns, skipping the most recent month. A risk manager notes that the strategy has historically experienced severe drawdowns shortly after sharp market rebounds following prolonged declines. Which explanation best describes this risk?

Momentum crashes occur because, after a market decline, the loser stocks held short are high-beta, so the portfolio carries negative market beta. When markets rebound sharply, the losers rally strongly and the long-short strategy suffers large losses. Its beta is time-varying rather than neutral.

  1. AMomentum portfolios tend to be short high-beta losers during a downturn, so a sharp rebound causes large losses (momentum crashes)Correct
  2. BMomentum portfolios hold large-cap stocks, which underperform in rebounds
  3. CMomentum returns are driven by dividend yield, which falls in rebounds
  4. DMomentum portfolios are market neutral by construction, so rebounds have no effect

Explanation

After a prolonged decline, past losers are typically high-beta, beaten-down stocks, so the short leg has high market beta and the portfolio has negative beta exposure. A sharp rebound causes these losers to surge, producing momentum crashes. Market neutrality by construction is not guaranteed; beta is time-varying.

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