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CA Foundation · Quantitative Aptitude · Correlation and Regression

A study finds that the number of ice creams sold in a city and the number of drowning incidents are strongly positively correlated across the months of a year. Which is the most appropriate interpretation?

The most appropriate interpretation is that a common factor such as hot weather probably drives both variables. Correlation shows association only, not causation, so the strong positive relationship does not mean ice cream causes drowning or vice versa.

  1. AEating ice cream causes drowning
  2. BDrowning incidents cause higher ice cream sales
  3. CBoth are likely driven by a common factor such as hot weather, so the correlation does not prove causationCorrect
  4. DThe correlation must be spurious and the true value of r is zero

Explanation

Correlation measures only the degree of linear association and does not establish cause and effect. Here a third variable, hot summer weather, increases both ice cream sales and swimming activity. Options A and B wrongly infer causation; option D is wrong because the observed correlation is real, only its causal interpretation is unsupported.

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