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CFA Level I · CFA Level I Exam · Financial Statement Forecasting in Equity Valuation

An analyst forecasts a manufacturer's capital expenditures for the next five years. The firm is expanding capacity to meet rising demand. Which approach to forecasting capex is most appropriate?

Capex for an expanding firm is best forecast by linking it to projected sales growth and required capacity. Capex equal to depreciation covers only maintenance, so it would understate growth spending, and basing it on past operating cash flow ignores the firm's actual investment needs.

  1. AHold capex equal to depreciation expense
  2. BLink capex to forecast sales growth and capacity needsCorrect
  3. CSet capex equal to last year's operating cash flow

Explanation

A firm expanding capacity needs capex above maintenance levels, so capex should be tied to expected sales growth and capacity requirements. Setting capex equal to depreciation only replaces existing assets and would understate growth investment. Tying capex to last year's operating cash flow has no link to the firm's needs.

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