FRM Part I · FRM Exam Part I · Regression Diagnostics
An analyst regresses monthly excess returns of a fund on the market excess return and plots the residuals against the fitted values. The plot shows a clear funnel shape, with residual dispersion widening as fitted values increase. Which conclusion is most appropriate?
A funnel-shaped residual plot signals heteroskedasticity. OLS coefficients remain unbiased and consistent, but the conventional standard errors are incorrect, making t-tests and confidence intervals unreliable. Robust standard errors, such as White's, are the usual remedy. It does not indicate bias, serial correlation or perfect collinearity.
- AThe errors are heteroskedastic, so the OLS coefficient estimates remain unbiased but the usual standard errors are unreliableCorrect
- BThe errors are serially correlated, so the OLS coefficient estimates are biased
- CThe regressors are perfectly collinear, so the model cannot be estimated
- DThe residuals are normally distributed, so no correction is needed
Explanation
A funnel pattern in residuals versus fitted values indicates non-constant error variance (heteroskedasticity). OLS slope estimates stay unbiased and consistent, but conventional standard errors are wrong, so t-tests are invalid. Serial correlation would show in residuals ordered over time, not a funnel shape.
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