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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Risk Identification

An operational risk manager wants to identify emerging risks that may not yet appear in the bank's loss data or risk taxonomy. Which approach is MOST suitable?

Horizon scanning combined with scenario workshops involving business, technology and external experts is most suitable, because emerging risks have no loss history. Results should be fed into the risk register. Internal loss data models, existing taxonomies and breach-triggered additions are all backward-looking or reactive.

  1. ACalibrating a loss distribution approach model to the last five years of internal loss data
  2. BRunning horizon scanning and scenario workshops with business, technology and external experts, and feeding the results into the risk registerCorrect
  3. CWaiting until a risk indicator breaches its limit before adding the risk to the register
  4. DLimiting the review to risks already listed in the existing taxonomy

Explanation

Emerging risks lack historical loss data, so forward-looking, judgment-based tools such as horizon scanning and scenario workshops are needed. Loss-data models and existing taxonomies look backward, and waiting for indicator breaches is reactive.

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