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IAI Actuarial Core Principles · Risk Modelling and Survival Analysis · Transition intensities dependent on age (exact or census)

In estimating a transition intensity from a mortality investigation, the central exposed to risk is best described as which of the following?

The central exposed to risk is the total time lives are observed while exposed to the risk of the event. Dividing deaths by this total waiting time gives the estimate of the force of mortality, whereas initial exposure counts starting lives and is used for q.

  1. AThe number of lives alive at the start of the year of age
  2. BThe total time spent under observation by lives while exposed to the risk of the eventCorrect
  3. CThe number of deaths divided by the number of lives at the start
  4. DThe initial exposed to risk less half the number of deaths
  5. The number of lives alive at the end of the year of age

Explanation

Central exposed to risk is the total observed time lived by all lives in the age range, so the estimate of the force of mortality is deaths divided by this time. The initial exposure counts lives at the start of the period and is used for estimating q rather than the force of mortality.

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