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IAI Actuarial Core Principles · Business Management · Using data, company functions, people skills, influence and clear communication

Ritu, an actuary, presents a reserving result to the board. A director who dislikes uncertainty asks her to give a single figure without ranges. Ritu believes the range is material to the decision. What is the most appropriate response?

Ritu should give a clear best estimate and briefly explain the key uncertainty and range in plain language. This respects the audience's preference for simplicity while not misleading the board on a material point, which is what professional communication requires.

  1. AGive only the single best estimate, as the director asked, to avoid confusion
  2. BGive the best estimate, and concisely explain the main uncertainty and range in plain language so the board can decide with understandingCorrect
  3. CPresent a wide technical range with full model detail and no summary
  4. DGive the lower end of the range as the figure to appear confident
  5. Decline to present until the director withdraws the request

Explanation

Clear communication means tailoring the message to the audience while not misleading. A best estimate with a short, plain statement of uncertainty meets both needs. Omitting the range or choosing a favourable end risks misleading; overloading with detail or refusing fails communication.

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