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IAI Actuarial Core Principles · Actuarial Statistics · Estimators and their properties

X1,...,Xn are independent Poisson(λ) variables. An analyst estimates λ² by T = (X̄)². Which expression gives the bias of T?

The bias is λ/n. Since E[X̄²] equals the variance of X̄, which is λ/n, plus the squared mean λ², the expectation exceeds λ² by λ/n. The estimator therefore overestimates λ² on average.

  1. A0
  2. Bλ/nCorrect
  3. C-λ/n
  4. Dλ²/n
  5. λ/n²

Explanation

E[X̄²] = Var(X̄) + (E[X̄])² = λ/n + λ². Bias = E[T] − λ² = λ/n. It is positive, so T overestimates λ².

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