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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Credit Risk Management

A credit risk analyst compares a bank's internal rating system with an agency's external ratings. The bank's system is designed to estimate each borrower's default probability over the next 12 months using current conditions, and ratings change quickly as new information arrives. Which description best fits this system?

The system is point-in-time. It estimates 12-month default probability from current conditions, so ratings migrate quickly with the economic cycle. Through-the-cycle ratings instead filter out temporary fluctuations and stay relatively stable, which is the opposite of the behavior described.

  1. AThrough-the-cycle, because it ignores current conditions to focus on long-run averages
  2. BPoint-in-time, because ratings reflect current conditions and migrate with the cycleCorrect
  3. CThrough-the-cycle, because ratings are stable across the economic cycle
  4. DPoint-in-time, because ratings are designed to remain unchanged during recessions

Explanation

A point-in-time system uses current information and a short horizon, so ratings and PDs move with the cycle. Through-the-cycle ratings are designed to be stable and look past temporary shocks. The through-the-cycle options describe the opposite behavior.

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