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ACCA Strategic Professional · Advanced Financial Management · Application of option pricing theory in investment decisions

A listed comparator's share price at successive year-ends was 100, 110 and 99, with no dividends. Using continuously compounded annual returns and the sample standard deviation (n-1), what is the estimated annual volatility?

Annual volatility is 14.19%. The two log returns are 9.53% and -10.54%, with a sample variance of 0.0201 using n-1. The square root gives 14.19%. Using the population divisor gives 10.03%, and quoting the variance gives 2.01%.

  1. A14.19%Correct
  2. B10.03%
  3. C20.07%
  4. D2.01%

Explanation

Returns are ln(110/100)=0.09531 and ln(99/110)=-0.10536. The mean is -0.005025 and each deviation is ±0.100335. The sum of squares is 0.020135. Dividing by n-1=1 gives variance 0.020135 and standard deviation 14.19%. Dividing by n=2 gives 10.03%. The range is 20.07%. The variance is 2.01%.

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