FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Credit Value at Risk
A risk analyst applies the Vasicek asymptotic formula to a bank's corporate book, which consists of only 25 large borrowers, with the top five making up 60% of exposure. Which statement best describes the likely effect on the capital estimate?
Capital is likely understated. The Vasicek formula assumes an infinitely granular portfolio in which idiosyncratic risk diversifies away completely. A book of 25 borrowers with heavy concentration retains significant name-specific risk, so tail losses exceed the formula's output unless a granularity adjustment is applied.
- ACapital is overstated because the model double counts diversification
- BCapital is unaffected because the formula depends only on PD and correlation
- CCapital is understated because the model assumes idiosyncratic risk is fully diversified awayCorrect
- DCapital is overstated because the model assumes perfect correlation among obligors
Explanation
The Vasicek formula assumes an infinitely granular portfolio, so only systematic risk remains. In a concentrated book, name-specific risk does not diversify, so actual tail losses exceed those implied by the formula. A granularity adjustment would be needed.
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