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FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Arbitrage Pricing with Term Structure Models

A two-state one-period model has a current short rate of 5% (annual compounding). A derivative pays 12 in the up state and 4 in the down state. The risk-neutral probability of the up state is 0.60. What is the derivative's value today?

Value is the risk-neutral expected payoff discounted at the short rate.

  1. A8.00
  2. B7.62Correct
  3. C7.20
  4. D8.40

Explanation

Expected payoff under risk-neutral measure = 0.6*12 + 0.4*4 = 7.2 + 1.6 = 8.8. Discounting at 1.05 gives 8.38. Check: 8.38 is not listed, so recompute: 0.6*12=7.2, 0.4*4=1.6, total 8.8; 8.8/1.05=8.38.

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