IAI Actuarial Core Principles · Risk Modelling and Survival Analysis · Mortality projection
In the context of mortality projection, which description best fits the 'extrapolative' approach?
The extrapolative approach projects future mortality by continuing the trends seen in historical data using a statistical model, rather than modelling causes of death or relying on expert opinion about future medical or lifestyle changes.
- AProjecting future mortality rates by extending trends observed in past mortality data, usually with a statistical modelCorrect
- BProjecting mortality by modelling the biological causes of each death, such as disease progression
- CProjecting mortality using expert opinion on medical advances and lifestyle changes only
- DSetting future mortality equal to the latest published life table with no trend
- Projecting mortality by grouping deaths by cause and applying separate economic forecasts to each
Explanation
The extrapolative approach assumes the future will resemble the past and extends historical trends in mortality rates. Explanation-based and expectation-based approaches use causes of death or opinion respectively. A static table involves no projection of trend.
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