FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Arbitrage Pricing with Term Structure Models
A risk analyst compares the Ho-Lee model, dr = λ(t)dt + σdw, with a model that has no time-dependent drift. Which statement about the role of λ(t) in Ho-Lee is correct?
In Ho-Lee, λ(t) is a time-dependent drift calibrated so that model-implied bond prices match the current market term structure. It does not provide mean reversion and does not prevent negative rates, because the short rate is normally distributed.
- AIt is chosen so the model reproduces the current market term structure of bond pricesCorrect
- BIt controls the speed at which rates revert to a long-run mean
- CIt is set equal to the short-rate volatility to ensure no arbitrage
- DIt makes the short rate strictly positive in all states
Explanation
In Ho-Lee, the time-dependent drift λ(t) is calibrated so that model prices match the observed bond or spot curve. Mean reversion is a feature of Vasicek, not Ho-Lee. Ho-Lee has normally distributed rates, so negative rates remain possible.
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