FRM Part II · FRM Exam Part II · Credit Value at Risk
A risk analyst compares the loss distribution of a loan portfolio with that of a portfolio of equally sized equity positions. Which feature best describes the credit portfolio loss distribution relative to the equity return distribution?
Credit portfolio losses are highly skewed with a long right tail. Gains are capped at contractual payments while default losses can be large, and default correlation fattens the tail. Normal or symmetric assumptions therefore understate extreme credit losses.
- AIt is roughly symmetric, with thin tails
- BIt is highly skewed, with a long right tail of large losses and a limited upsideCorrect
- CIt is uniform between zero and the total exposure
- DIt is normal, because many independent loans are held
Explanation
Credit returns are capped at the contractual interest and principal, while default losses can be large. This gives a skewed loss distribution with a fat right tail. Symmetric or normal assumptions understate the tail, particularly when defaults are correlated.
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