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CMA Intermediate · Operations Management and Strategic Management · Project Management, Monitoring and Control

A project has an expected duration of 40 days with a standard deviation of 4 days on its critical path. Given the normal distribution, the area under the curve between the mean and Z = 1.5 is 0.4332. What is the probability of completing the project within 46 days?

The probability is 93.32%. Z = (46 − 40)/4 = 1.5, and adding the 0.5 area below the mean to 0.4332 gives 0.9332. The figure 6.68% is the probability of taking longer than 46 days.

  1. A43.32%
  2. B56.68%
  3. C93.32%Correct
  4. D6.68%

Explanation

Z = (46 - 40)/4 = 1.5. Probability = 0.5 + 0.4332 = 0.9332, i.e. 93.32%. Choosing 43.32% forgets the 0.5 area below the mean; 6.68% is the chance of exceeding 46 days.

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