CMA Intermediate · Operations Management and Strategic Management · Project Management, Monitoring and Control
In a PERT network, an activity has optimistic time 4 days, most likely time 7 days and pessimistic time 16 days. Using the beta-distribution approximation, what is its expected time?
The expected time is 8 days. PERT weights the most likely time four times, so (4 + 4×7 + 16)/6 = 48/6 = 8 days. The simple average of the three estimates would wrongly give 9 days.
- A7 days
- B8 daysCorrect
- C9 days
- D10 days
Explanation
Expected time te = (a + 4m + b)/6 = (4 + 28 + 16)/6 = 48/6 = 8 days. Choosing 9 days would come from the simple average of a, m and b (27/3), which is not the PERT weighting.
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